The economy added no new jobs in August, according to numbers released Friday.
We may already be in a mild recession, according to FTN Financial chief economist Chris Low.
“Bottom line: The Washington Post said today’s employment report would show whether or not we are in a recession, but in an odd twist of fate, the report shows the first (zero) change in nonfarm payrolls since 1945. It is the only possible non-definitive answer. The Verizon strike made this report uglier than it would have been otherwise, but a strike-adjusted 3-mo average is 50k, which is still downright lousy. There are also a disconcerting number of industries unaffected by the strike, but shedding workers nonetheless.
The Fed, the CBO and now the White House have revised their official forecasts to show little change in the unemployment rate through the end of next year, which is essentially a forecast that the sluggish job growth of the past four months is the post-stimulus new-new-normal for the US. if so, the risk of recession is at least 50-50 for the foreseeable future, because the economy will be so fragile it won’t take much to tip it over the edge.”